Euros made in the first place in the list of the best artists of the year under any of the currencies Bloomberg tracked. A recovery in the oil prices, the improvement in global risk appetite, high demand from carry traders, and the reluctance of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation are continuing the cycle of monetary Expansion by the end of 2016 and the hope of an improvement in relations between Washington and Moscow, the most important driver, позволившими the currency pair USD/RUB months the Trading Range 62-67,5 leave. Despite the Status Favorita U.S. Dollar, the Russian currency is considered to be one of its main competitors in the year 2017.
The results of the best and worst performers
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The idea of a differentiated approach to the currencies of the developing countries is now in fashion among the banks and investment companies. Bets on the currencies of those countries, is, firstly, to rise the least susceptible to the policy антиглобализма Donald Trump, secondly, less dependent on foreign foreign loans, especially in dollars, the cost of maintenance; third, through the improvement of the political climate. Preferably, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
Thus, UBS Group believes that, in 2017, the ruble is in a position to improve your results, demonstrated in this year, and strengthened 26% against the US Dollar. As the main arguments, the high interest rates for Russian assets and the continuation of the rally of Brent and WTI to a decline in production by OPEC, and not a member of the cartel of the countries.
The company is NN Investment Partners-based, the more than $750 million, as a potential driver of growth of the ruble highlights the high demand for Russian shares. In their opinion, the share indexes of the Russian Federation are able to show the best results among the markets of developing countries due to the fact that the appreciation of the national currency and higher than previously predicted and oil prices, the Bank of Russia monetary policy, which would contribute to the continuation of the rally on indices MICEX and RTS, are meant to encourage loosening.
Deutsche Bank expects the improvement in the political climate and the rapprochement between Moscow and Washington increase the demand of foreigners on Russian bonds. To lift In this regard, the request of the Ministry of Finance, specific weight of loans in the financing of the budget deficit of the Russian Federation with the current 20% to 90% by 2019 – a positive factor for the rouble. To increase in spite of the plans to reduce the deficit from 3.7% up to 1% in the next 2-3 years, the volume of Emission by changing the structure of the financing. The inflows into ETFS, which is aimed at the Russian debt market, the support for the “bears” on EUR/RUB and USD/RUB.
The prospects of oil in 2017, look moderately optimistic: according to an average evaluation of experts Bloomberg, the average price for Brent in the first quarter amounted to $53 in the second, $56, for a year and $58 per Barrel. That is, in the second half of the year североморский variety is quoted above $60 per Barrel.
Technically December Update sub-pages of quotes of USD/RUB can be diverted to around 58.5.
USD/RUB daily chart
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