The Russian President recently stated publicly that the Russian economy “took place in the height of the crisis”. (Although usually the peak of the crisis, called shortly and simply bottom). The experts, the analysis of the data for the production and manufacture of October/November, making the other issue – started a new wave of autumn. The maximum of all the 15 years of Putin fall, the real incomes of the population – a minus of 11% per year. This is the decline.
As they say, “We think of the future. What it is, tomorrow’s ground?”.
One of the most important moments – the decline in oil prices, of course. Oil securely fixed on under US $ 40/Barrel, and that it is not practically “jumps”. Although formally at least, the Winter of 2008/2009 was a little under 30 US dollars/Barrel (if I’m not mistaken), but from there in the year 2009 oil quickly jumped on growth and the average per year was about 60 US-Dollar – Budget, Oilers – almost no one has done, then understand what it means, such a low cost – in addition to the dealers, the маржинколлы below. :)
And now all of the prophesy a new case. Can anyone of you remembers, as I do, that in the lows of oil in 2008-2009 the major U.S. banks type Goldman Sachs hired Super-Tanker and filled up in them a large quantity of oil to earn later on growth. Now I have not heard of – the big players now, it seems, to believe that the oil may be cheap for a long time.
It is, incidentally, speaks volumes. Can not be so that healthy growth of the global economy – the boss (one of the most important) resource was cheaper dirt – and did not have the capacity to increase. And we know about the decline in the prices very heavily on iron ore. Gold fell 2 times from the height and not growing. These signals – the global economy is seriously ill. And the source of global risks, the middle of the disease – in China, I believe. The question of deep correction of the economy of China – question for the next future (year three). It is not a question of the correction of stock market of China – it was already much too 40 years of continuous growth. As in Russia, the stock market in China does not show the actual state of the economy. So, in Russia stock indexes, which are now on the highs or so (highs of 2008 and 2011-13 years – funny, isn’t it?) You just have to add, that it is a matter of the indexes, the rouble – and they show the devastating rubles for 2 years nothing more. Look at the RTS index ( $ ) and the image is Real.
So, the prices for oil the honking us about the General disease of the global economy. And the Russian crisis (triggered by the, of course, wise Putin and his still more wise policy in the Crimea and in the Donbass) – it is only an indicator, the harbinger of the global financial crisis – only Russia was the weakest link in the bursting of the worldwide chain, once again (as it was in 1917, 1990, 1998).
At the beginning of the increase of the prices in US dollars undoubtedly, the new global crisis. What is the Fed crazy? No, of course. But go to the global crisis with a zero-interest – a huge risk. Must try to find time to prepare measures to support the economy at this Moment, if the crisis is – and that is the decline in prices. Must now lift to it then where to reduce. The logic is a funny thing, but the Fed tired in the corner and choose from wrong and terrible. In the corner of the Fed drove the huge public debt of the United States. The normal interest rate of the Fed would be about 4-6% per year, however, pay the interest on the national debt in 5%, if the debt is 100% of GDP from the budget, the 25% of the GDP, that is, to give only the interest on the debt, the 20% of the budget. When in fact socialism in the USA (health program of Obama) – it is impossible, impossible.
What is the solution? Obviously, the Plan is: – “somehow resolve itself”.
But still more, as the weakest link in the chain of China. And we need to understand that we to a new global crisis is much closer than the previous.
All successful weekend. :)
With kind Regards,
Analyst: Mikhail Makarov
GK InstaForex © 2007-2015
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